Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 15w (fifteen) Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2010 03:52:08 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 140.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 140.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 12.0N 140.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 12.5N 139.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 13.2N 137.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 14.0N 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 15.8N 132.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 17.5N 129.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 18.3N 124.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 140.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (FIFTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES (130339Z AMSRE 89 GHZ AND 130442Z AMSU 89 GHZ) SHOW
TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (> 28
DEGREES C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TS 15W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MAINLAND JAPAN, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR TAU 36, A MID-
LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND REBUILD
WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE ALONG A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGHLY FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OHC. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//

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