From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 13 16:52:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9D8qS8v005083 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 16:52:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9CKppQt017124; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 03:52:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3865240 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 03:52:16 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9D8qGa8009046 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 03:52:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9D8q8Rv000392 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 03:52:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 98B9840501E6; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 03:52:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101013085208.98B9840501E6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2010 03:52:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 15w (fifteen) Warning Nr 002 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 140.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 140.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 12.0N 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.5N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.2N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.0N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.8N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.5N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.3N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 140.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (FIFTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES (130339Z AMSRE 89 GHZ AND 130442Z AMSU 89 GHZ) SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (> 28 DEGREES C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR TAU 36, A MID- LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND REBUILD WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE ALONG A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGHLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OHC. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.