From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 14 04:32:25 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9DKWONv022416 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 04:32:24 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9DB2EEC019087; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:32:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3875086 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:32:13 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9DKWCvw025911 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:32:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9DKW682006414 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:32:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9710B40501E7; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:32:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101013203205.9710B40501E7@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:32:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 15w (megi) Warning Nr 004 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 11.6N 140.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 140.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.0N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.6N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.5N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.5N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.1N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.0N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 17.1N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 140.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AND TIGHT FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS DEVELOPING AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE EAST. A 131554Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, THE STR WILL REORIENT AND ALLOW TS 15W TO BEGIN TRACKING IN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION (TAU 12 THROUGH 48). DURING THIS PERIOD, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED INTO THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS, COUPLED WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE AIR COLUMN, AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT, WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH AND THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME TRACKING WESTWARD. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS THAT GENERALLY HANDLE RI (GFDN AND COAMPS) ARE SHOWING SOME RI SIGNALS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. // +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.