From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 14 05:31:21 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9DLVKao026289 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 05:31:21 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9DB2Ep4019088; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 16:31:07 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3875979 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 16:31:07 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9DLV6nr001748 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 16:31:07 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9DLV0VT007584 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 16:31:06 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 70DD140501E6; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 16:30:57 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101013213100.70DD140501E6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2010 16:30:57 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 769 FXPQ60 PGUM 132130 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 730 AM CHST THU OCT 14 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS WATERS. A MONSOON TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU. TROPICAL STORM MEGI IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS EAST OF 166E. && .DISCUSSION... AS TROPICAL STORM MEGI CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE MARIANAS SHOULD IMPROVE. THEREFORE ELIMINATED THE THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY RIGHT AWAY. NO NEED TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AS SHOWN BY RADAR /NO TOPS TO 30 THOUSAND FEET...LET ALONE 30 DBZ OR MORE/ AND SATELLITE /MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS/. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED PACKAGE WAS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE LATEST IR AND ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TWO TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES SLOWLY MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK ONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS FOR BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONGER ONE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS INTO FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES MIGHT PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER FOR ALL THE MAJOR LOCATIONS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM MEGI LAST EVENING BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...PASSING NORTH OF YAP AND PALAU DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK TRADES NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MEGI WILL MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS OVER CHUUK THRU FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRADE DISTURBANCES FROM THE EAST COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND. A BAND OF CONVERGING SOUTH WINDS FLOWING TOWARD MEGI HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF YAP. AS MEGI SLOWLY PULLS NORTH OF YAP... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND IS GOING TO DRAPE OVER YAP THRU FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KOROR WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS BAND AS WELL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT BUT FUTURE SHIFTS SHOULD HAVE BETTER TIMING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY NEAR CHUUK MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.