Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2010 16:30:57 -0500

769 
FXPQ60 PGUM 132130
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
730 AM CHST THU OCT 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
MARIANAS WATERS. A MONSOON TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU. TROPICAL
STORM MEGI IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
KOSRAE AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS EAST OF 166E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS TROPICAL STORM MEGI CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE LOCAL WEATHER FOR
THE MARIANAS SHOULD IMPROVE. THEREFORE ELIMINATED THE
THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY RIGHT
AWAY. NO NEED TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AS SHOWN BY RADAR /NO TOPS TO
30 THOUSAND FEET...LET ALONE 30 DBZ OR MORE/ AND SATELLITE /MOSTLY
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS/. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED PACKAGE WAS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE LATEST IR AND ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TWO TRADE-WIND 
DISTURBANCES SLOWLY MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK ONE 
IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS FOR BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONGER ONE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS INTO FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...LIGHT TO 
GENTLE TRADES MIGHT PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER FOR ALL THE 
MAJOR LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM MEGI LAST
EVENING BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY
DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...PASSING NORTH OF YAP
AND PALAU DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK TRADES NEAR THE SURFACE
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MEGI WILL MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS OVER CHUUK
THRU FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRADE DISTURBANCES
FROM THE EAST COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY THE
WEEKEND. A BAND OF CONVERGING SOUTH WINDS FLOWING TOWARD MEGI HAS
FORMED JUST EAST OF YAP. AS MEGI SLOWLY PULLS NORTH OF YAP...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND IS GOING TO DRAPE OVER YAP
THRU FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KOROR WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
BAND AS WELL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT BUT FUTURE SHIFTS SHOULD HAVE
BETTER TIMING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME IN THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY NEAR CHUUK MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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