From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 14 13:54:09 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9E5s8WJ023095 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:54:08 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9E50e8W008887; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:53:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3882101 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:53:11 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9E5rBj7014026 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:53:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9E5r4B0004913 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:53:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0CC7F40501E7; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:53:03 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101014055304.0CC7F40501E7@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:53:03 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 140600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZOCT2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140151ZOCT2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 140000Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 140300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS POORLY- ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TS 15W. THE 140129Z ASCAT IMAGE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE SLP VALUES OF 1007-1008 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.