Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:53:03 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140151ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 140000Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.1N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 140300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS POORLY-
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TS 15W. THE
140129Z ASCAT IMAGE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
INDICATES RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS
NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE SLP VALUES OF 1007-1008 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

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