From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 14 16:14:32 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9E8EVuE031742 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:14:32 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9E80J72022943; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:14:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3882780 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:14:18 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9E8EI1i023964 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:14:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9E8EB0X027170 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:14:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7EF8D40501E6; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:14:11 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101014081411.7EF8D40501E6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:14:11 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 683 FXPQ60 PGUM 140814 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 610 PM CHST THU OCT 14 2010 .SYNOPSIS... TS MEGI IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WSW OF GUAM AND MOVING OFF TO THE WNW...BUT ITS UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HAS EXPANDED BACK EAST OVER THE MARIANAS. RADAR SHOWS THE OUTERMOST RAINBAND OF MEGI ABOUT 140 MILES WEST OF GUAM...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS. && .DISCUSSION... WITH TS MEGI MOVING OFF TO THE WEST...WEATHER ACROSS THE MARIANAS WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN TO TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM MEGI SHOULD THIN OUT BY FRI MORNING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... AS MEGI INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHOULD SEE SOME KIND OF WSW TO WEST SWELL BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE FRI AND SATURDAY AS MEGI ESTABLISHES A WIND FETCH HISTORY THAT WE CAN USE TO CALCULATE SWELL. FOR NOW...HAVE BROUGHT IN A WEST SWELL OF 2 FEET MON RISING TO 3 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG/BIG MEGI GETS AND ON HOW FAST IT MOVES... THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. DISTURBANCES ARE SLOWLY MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BUT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS. OPTED TO CHANGE KOSRAE FIRST PERIOD FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE LEFT REMAINDER OF FORECASTS NEARLY THE SAME. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... TROPICAL STORM MEGI (15W) IS LOCATED NEAR 12N139E NORTH OF YAP AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH. WEAK TRADES NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MEGI WILL MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS OVER CHUUK THRU FRIDAY EVENING...THEN TRADE DISTURBANCES FROM THE EAST COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND. CONVERGING WEST WINDS FLOWING INTO MEGI ARE FLOWING OVER YAP. AS MEGI SLOWLY PULLS NORTH AND WEST OF YAP...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND IS GOING TO DRAPE OVER YAP PROBABLY THRU FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KOROR COULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS BAND LATER TONIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.