Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:14:11 -0500

683 
FXPQ60 PGUM 140814
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
610 PM CHST THU OCT 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TS MEGI IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WSW OF GUAM AND MOVING OFF TO
THE WNW...BUT ITS UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HAS EXPANDED BACK EAST
OVER THE MARIANAS. RADAR SHOWS THE OUTERMOST RAINBAND OF MEGI ABOUT
140 MILES WEST OF GUAM...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ACROSS
THE MARIANAS WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH TS MEGI MOVING OFF TO THE WEST...WEATHER ACROSS THE MARIANAS
WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN TO TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM MEGI SHOULD
THIN OUT BY FRI MORNING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.MARINE...
AS MEGI INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHOULD SEE SOME KIND
OF WSW TO WEST SWELL BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD GET A
BETTER HANDLE FRI AND SATURDAY AS MEGI ESTABLISHES A WIND FETCH
HISTORY THAT WE CAN USE TO CALCULATE SWELL. FOR NOW...HAVE BROUGHT
IN A WEST SWELL OF 2 FEET MON RISING TO 3 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE.
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG/BIG MEGI GETS AND ON HOW FAST IT MOVES...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE 
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. DISTURBANCES ARE 
SLOWLY MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BUT MAINLY TO THE NORTH 
OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS. OPTED TO CHANGE KOSRAE FIRST PERIOD FROM 
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE LEFT REMAINDER OF 
FORECASTS NEARLY THE SAME.  

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM MEGI (15W) IS LOCATED NEAR 12N139E NORTH OF YAP AND 
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH. WEAK TRADES NEAR THE 
SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MEGI WILL MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS OVER 
CHUUK THRU FRIDAY EVENING...THEN TRADE DISTURBANCES FROM THE EAST 
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND. CONVERGING 
WEST WINDS FLOWING INTO MEGI ARE FLOWING OVER YAP. AS MEGI SLOWLY 
PULLS NORTH AND WEST OF YAP...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND 
IS GOING TO DRAPE OVER YAP PROBABLY THRU FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE 
THAT KOROR COULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS BAND LATER TONIGHT. GRADUAL 
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE 
CURRENTLY OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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