From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 14 16:42:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9E8gRBT000514 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:42:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9DB2E8v019088; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:42:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3882931 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:42:13 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9E8gCma025983 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:42:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9E8g6uM001425 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:42:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D777040501E6; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:42:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101014084205.D777040501E6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:42:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 15w (megi) Warning Nr 006 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 140900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 139.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 139.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.5N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.5N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 15.5N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.4N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.3N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.3N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.8N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 138.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE EVIDENT. A 140422Z AMSR-E 36V IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC); HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF AN EYE IN EITHER VISIBLE OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS, PRIMARILY BASED ON AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 140436Z INDICATING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 986 MB; DVORAK ESTIMATES VARY WIDELY AND RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 35 KNOTS (RJTD) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIX DATA AND THE AMSR-E IMAGE, WHICH WERE COINCIDENT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK PRESSURE ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEAKENING DISTURBANCE NEAR 10N 130E. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE DISRUPTING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15 KNOT PER DAY RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST, HOWEVER, 15W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 120 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.