Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 15w (megi) Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:42:04 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 139.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 139.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 13.5N 137.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 14.5N 136.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 15.5N 134.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 16.4N 132.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 17.3N 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 17.3N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.8N 119.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 138.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
EVIDENT. A 140422Z AMSR-E 36V IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC);
HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF AN EYE IN EITHER VISIBLE OR
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS, PRIMARILY
BASED ON AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 140436Z INDICATING MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 986 MB;
DVORAK ESTIMATES VARY WIDELY AND RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 35 KNOTS
(RJTD) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIX DATA AND THE AMSR-E IMAGE, WHICH
WERE COINCIDENT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WEAK PRESSURE ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK
ANTICYLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEAKENING DISTURBANCE NEAR 10N 130E. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE DISRUPTING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. TS 15W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15 KNOT PER DAY RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE TO
THE WEST, HOWEVER, 15W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24
DUE TO AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK
AT 120 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//

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