From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 15 05:35:17 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9ELZGKN001329 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 05:35:16 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9E80J1g022943; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:35:01 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3891306 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:35:01 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9ELZ0Pk017456 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:35:00 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9ELYsoN015930 for ; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:35:00 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 68E6A40501A6; Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:34:54 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101014213454.68E6A40501A6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:34:54 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 231 FXPQ60 PGUM 142134 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 734 AM CHST FRI OCT 15 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH $ MEGI MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS ALONG WITH MEGI. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A SURFACE TROUGH ARE CREATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM KOSRAE TO MAJURO TO WAKE ISLAND AND BEYOND. && .DISCUSSION...GFS40 JUST KEEPS MOVING TRADE-WIND SHOWERS THROUGH THE MARIANAS FOR THE NEXT WEEK...AND NOT ALL THAT MANY OF THOSE. ECMWF-HIRES AGREES THAT QPF WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. WHILE THESE ARE NOT HARD AND FAST FIGURES...THEY DO INDICATE SOMEWHAT DRIER TIMES AHEAD. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW THIS WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED. && .MARINE... PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED WEST SWELL FROM MEGI...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REALLY GOOD IDEA. NOT SURE IT WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY TO START COMING IN. IF WE GET A GOOD SCAT PASS TODAY THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO DIG OUT THE NOMOGRAMS AND FORECAST THE SWELLS THE OLD FASHIONED BUT TRIED AND TRUE WAY. THE EFFECT ON THE COMBINED SEAS WILL BE RATHER MUTED AS THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW REMAINS TO BE THE ONLY MAJOR FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. IT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER POHNPEI THRU SATURDAY...AND KOSRAE THRU TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION IS GOING TO KEEP A SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS THE DISTURBANCE PULLS FARTHER WEST OF MAJURO LATER TODAY...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE DATE LINE SHOULD PROMOTE A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALSO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA REVEAL A MODERATE ITCZ EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE TO SOUTH OF HAWAII. THIS CONVERGENT ZONE MIGHT AFFECT THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BY MONDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DRIER LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER FOR CHUUK MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...CAUSED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS TYPHOON MEGI BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD PASSING NORTH OF YAP. A DISTINCTIVE BAND OF CONVERGING SOUTH WINDS EXTENDING S-SE FROM MEGI WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE UP CONVECTION OVER YAP THRU AT LEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD IMPACT KOROR AS WELL BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MEGI IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TUTT CELL NEAR THE MARIANAS WILL INTRODUCE DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT AND SUSTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.