From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 15 16:03:19 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9F83IMS022036 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 16:03:18 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9ELxwWl022943; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:02:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3897600 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:02:48 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9F82lBL013218 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:02:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9F82fuJ003569 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:02:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id E5EB240501A6; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:02:40 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101015080240.E5EB240501A6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:02:40 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 637 FXPQ60 PGUM 150802 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 602 PM CHST FRI OCT 15 2010 .SYNOPSIS...THE RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS TODAY AS TYPHOON MEGI (15W) HAS MOVED FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE LIGHT CIRRUS FROM THE STORM SHOULD ALSO BE GONE BY TOMORROW. && .DISCUSSION...WEATHER LOOKS PRETTY DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE OUTLOOK AND DO NOT SEEM TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THE AREA AROUND 165E TO 170E...ALTHOUGH I THINK IT AT LEAST BARES WATCHING FOR ANY NOTICEABLE WESTWARD TREND. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE WEAK TROUGH SOUTH OF POHNPEI REMAINING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OF COURSE...TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST. && .MARINE...WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS A VERY WEAK WEST SWELL FROM TYPHOON MEGI ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. A QUICK MANUAL CALCULATION FOR TYPHOON- GENERATED SWELLS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MORE AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TYPHOON...WITH THE WEST WINDS...IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...EVEN THE GALE FORCE WINDS FAIL TO GO OUT FURTHER THAN ABOUT 45 TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. WITH THIS SMALL SIZED STORM...ANY WESTERLY SWELL AFFECTING THE MARIANAS IS GOING TO BE VERY DEPENDENT UPON HOW LONG THE TYPHOON TRACKS WESTWARD AT OUR LATITUDES OF 13N TO 15N. ANY MOVEMENT MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT WILL PROBABLY MEAN THAT THE SWELLS WOULD NOT AFFECT US AT ALL. IN ANY EVENT...I DELAYED THE WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVAL A DAY AND KEPT THE HEIGHTS AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR THIS EVENT. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE-WIND FLOW IS THE ONLY MAJOR FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. IT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER POHNPEI THRU SATURDAY...AND KOSRAE INTO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING A SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE DATE LINE SHOULD PROMOTE A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FOR MAJURO INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALSO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DRY...LIGHT-TO-GENTLE TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER FOR CHUUK MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY CAUSED BY THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED TYPHOON MEGI MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. A BAND OF CONVERGING SOUTH WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM MEGI WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER YAP AT LEAST INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD IMPACT KOROR BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MEGI MAY YET DRIFT OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ EDSON/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.