Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:02:40 -0500

637 
FXPQ60 PGUM 150802
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
602 PM CHST FRI OCT 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE MARIANAS TODAY AS TYPHOON MEGI (15W) HAS MOVED FURTHER TO
THE WEST. THE LIGHT CIRRUS FROM THE STORM SHOULD ALSO BE GONE BY
TOMORROW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER LOOKS PRETTY DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE OUTLOOK AND DO NOT
SEEM TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THE AREA AROUND 165E TO 170E...ALTHOUGH I
THINK IT AT LEAST BARES WATCHING FOR ANY NOTICEABLE WESTWARD
TREND. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE WEAK TROUGH SOUTH OF POHNPEI REMAINING
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OF COURSE...TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ALWAYS A
POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS MOIST.

&&

.MARINE...WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS A VERY WEAK WEST SWELL FROM TYPHOON
MEGI ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. A QUICK MANUAL CALCULATION FOR TYPHOON-
GENERATED SWELLS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MORE AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TYPHOON...WITH THE WEST WINDS...IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE
NORTHERN HALF. IN ADDITION...EVEN THE GALE FORCE WINDS FAIL TO GO
OUT FURTHER THAN ABOUT 45 TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. WITH THIS
SMALL SIZED STORM...ANY WESTERLY SWELL AFFECTING THE MARIANAS IS
GOING TO BE VERY DEPENDENT UPON HOW LONG THE TYPHOON TRACKS
WESTWARD AT OUR LATITUDES OF 13N TO 15N. ANY MOVEMENT MUCH
FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT WILL PROBABLY MEAN THAT THE SWELLS WOULD
NOT AFFECT US AT ALL. IN ANY EVENT...I DELAYED THE WESTERLY SWELL
ARRIVAL A DAY AND KEPT THE HEIGHTS AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THURSDAY SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADE-WIND FLOW IS THE ONLY MAJOR FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA. IT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER POHNPEI
THRU SATURDAY...AND KOSRAE INTO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING A SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE DATE LINE SHOULD PROMOTE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FOR MAJURO INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIGHT WIND
REGIME WILL ALSO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER FOR
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA... DRY...LIGHT-TO-GENTLE TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER FOR CHUUK MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY CAUSED BY THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST. THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED TYPHOON MEGI MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. A BAND OF
CONVERGING SOUTH WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM MEGI WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER YAP AT LEAST INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD IMPACT KOROR BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MEGI
MAY YET DRIFT OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

EDSON/DEVITA

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