From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 15 16:28:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9F8SRvT024034 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 16:28:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9ELxwXE022943; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:28:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3897756 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:28:17 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9F8SHUs014884 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:28:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9F8SBtm004831 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:28:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 054D740501A6; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:28:10 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101015082811.054D740501A6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:28:10 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 010 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 136.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 136.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.3N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.5N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.3N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.6N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.2N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.1N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.1N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 136.1E. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW WITH IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TY 15W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A WEAKNESS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE 15/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A MAJOR MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN ASIA WITH THE AXIS ALONG 128E. THE STR HAS REMAINED STRONG AND EXTENDS FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N 133E WESTWARD TO 130E. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LUZON. TY 15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72 AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON. MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING UKMO, JGSM, ECMWF AND GFS (AS WELL AS ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS), IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE NOGAPS, WBAR AND GFDN WHICH INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS POSITIONED SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THESE OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.