Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 010

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 03:28:10 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 136.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 136.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 16.3N 134.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 17.5N 132.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 18.3N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.6N 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 18.2N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 17.1N 119.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 17.1N 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 136.1E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW WITH
IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TY 15W HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A WEAKNESS POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE 15/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A MAJOR
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN ASIA WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 128E. THE STR HAS REMAINED STRONG AND EXTENDS FROM A HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 24N 133E WESTWARD TO 130E. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
LUZON. TY 15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72 AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON. MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
UKMO, JGSM, ECMWF AND GFS (AS WELL AS ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS), IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE NOGAPS, WBAR
AND GFDN WHICH INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS POSITIONED SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET THESE OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND
160900Z.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.