Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 15:54:07 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 134.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 134.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 18.0N 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 18.7N 129.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.9N 127.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.6N 124.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 18.0N 120.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 17.4N 117.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 17.8N 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 133.7E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151719Z AMSU
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE TUTT LOW, PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 20N 130E, BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE AND CONCURRENT SATELLITE FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AT 15/18Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD
BASED ON AN IMPROVED BANDING SIGNATURE IN IR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TOWARD A WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD, THE STR
IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND RE-BUILD TO THE WEST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO TURN WESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND OCEANIC (HIGH
SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT) CONDITIONS AS IT APPROACHES LUZON.
TY MEGI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72 AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY AND SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
LUZON. AFTER TAU 72 TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON INTENSITY AND TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS AND WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD INTO
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST ASIA. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE EGRR, ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFS TRACKERS WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.