From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 16 04:54:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9FKsYf0019784 for ; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 04:54:35 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9FFhbUJ022943; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 15:54:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3906794 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 15:54:14 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9FKsEeJ028400 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 15:54:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9FKs8g4007155 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 15:54:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 06ACA108B0002; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 15:54:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101015205408.06ACA108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 15:54:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 012 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 134.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 134.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.0N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.7N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.9N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.6N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.0N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.4N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 17.8N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 133.7E. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151719Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE TUTT LOW, PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20N 130E, BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE AND CONCURRENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AT 15/18Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD BASED ON AN IMPROVED BANDING SIGNATURE IN IR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND RE-BUILD TO THE WEST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND OCEANIC (HIGH SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT) CONDITIONS AS IT APPROACHES LUZON. TY MEGI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY AND SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON. AFTER TAU 72 TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON INTENSITY AND TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD INTO THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST ASIA. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE EGRR, ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFS TRACKERS WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. 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