From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 16 05:57:36 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9FLvZHu027001 for ; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 05:57:36 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9FFhbZ1022943; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 16:57:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3907621 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 16:57:20 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9FLvKF4003956 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 16:57:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9FLvDJu001261 for ; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 16:57:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9A46D108B0002; Fri, 15 Oct 2010 16:57:13 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101015215713.9A46D108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 16:57:13 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 701 FXPQ60 PGUM 152156 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 756 AM CHST SAT OCT 16 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. TYPHOON MEGI IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 15N AND 20N FROM 132E TO 138E. A MONSOON TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF KOROR PALAU BETWEEN 5N AND 9N FROM 130E TO 135E. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK AND POHNPEI BETWEEN 2N AND 8N FROM 148E TO 158E AND SOUTH OF WAKE BETWEEN 14N AND 19N FROM 161E TO 172E. && .DISCUSSION... THE GFS40 STARTS DUMPING A BUNCH OF RAIN ON THE MARIANAS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ORIGINATES FROM THE AREA CURRENTLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF CHUUK. THE ECMWF-HIRES ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE BUT KEEPS IT SOUTH OF US. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE CURRENTLY DRY GRIDS ALONE. OTHER FEATURES OF THE FORECAST LOOKED REALLY GOOD SO DID NOT CHANGE THOSE EITHER. && .MARINE... SOME WEST SWELL SHOULD ARRIVE FROM TYPHOON MEGI SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOST LIKELY IT WILL ONLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET AS ASCAT SHOWS THE WEST WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE NO HIGH SURF OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING POHNPEI THIS MORNING...EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE DAY. THEN DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADES ALREADY DOMINATING KOSRAE WILL ALSO PROMOTE FAIR CONDITIONS OVER POHNPEI BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE DATE LINE AND MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. CONVERGING WINDS AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE HAVE BEEN TRIGGERING SPORADIC CONVECTION SOUTH OF MAJURO OVERNIGHT. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BUILD NORTHWARD AND IMPACT MAJURO INTO SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES SHOULD PROVIDE WEAKER CONVERGENCE OVER THE MARSHALLS BUT AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY MIGHT INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR TRADE-WIND SHOWERS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TRADE SURGE EAST OF THE DATE LINE IS GOING TO DISPLACE THE SECOND DISTURBANCE CLOSER TO 10N...AND CAUSE IT TO PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM POHNPEI WILL APPROACH CHUUK TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO THE ISLAND. TYPHOON MEGI IS MOVING FARTHER NORTHWEST OF YAP OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. IN RESPONSE...THE BAND OF CONVERGENT WINDS HAS SHIFTED WEST OF YAP BUT OVER KOROR INSTEAD. AS CONVECTION FLARING UP IN THE VICINITY OF KOROR TODAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR YAP AS WELL. THEN GENTLE SOUTHEAST TRADES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LESS SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MARIANAS COULD ENHANCE TRADE-WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.