Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 16:57:13 -0500

701 
FXPQ60 PGUM 152156
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
756 AM CHST SAT OCT 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS. TYPHOON MEGI IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 15N AND 20N FROM 132E TO 138E. A
MONSOON TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF KOROR PALAU BETWEEN 5N AND 9N FROM
130E TO 135E. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK AND POHNPEI BETWEEN
2N AND 8N FROM 148E TO 158E AND SOUTH OF WAKE BETWEEN 14N AND 19N
FROM 161E TO 172E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS40 STARTS DUMPING A BUNCH OF RAIN ON THE MARIANAS STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ORIGINATES FROM THE AREA CURRENTLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF CHUUK. THE ECMWF-HIRES ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE BUT KEEPS IT
SOUTH OF US. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE CURRENTLY DRY GRIDS
ALONE. OTHER FEATURES OF THE FORECAST LOOKED REALLY GOOD SO DID
NOT CHANGE THOSE EITHER.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME WEST SWELL SHOULD ARRIVE FROM TYPHOON MEGI SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. MOST LIKELY IT WILL ONLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET AS ASCAT SHOWS THE
WEST WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE NO HIGH
SURF OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING POHNPEI THIS MORNING...EXPECT 
SHOWER COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE DAY. THEN DRIER 
SOUTHEAST TRADES ALREADY DOMINATING KOSRAE WILL ALSO PROMOTE FAIR 
CONDITIONS OVER POHNPEI BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS 
SLOWLY CROSSING THE DATE LINE AND MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE MARSHALL 
ISLANDS. CONVERGING WINDS AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE HAVE BEEN 
TRIGGERING SPORADIC CONVECTION SOUTH OF MAJURO OVERNIGHT. AS THE 
DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BUILD 
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT MAJURO INTO SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENTLE 
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES SHOULD PROVIDE WEAKER CONVERGENCE OVER THE 
MARSHALLS BUT AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY MIGHT INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR 
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TRADE SURGE EAST 
OF THE DATE LINE IS GOING TO DISPLACE THE SECOND DISTURBANCE CLOSER 
TO 10N...AND CAUSE IT TO PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM POHNPEI WILL APPROACH CHUUK TODAY 
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN 
TO THE ISLAND. TYPHOON MEGI IS MOVING FARTHER NORTHWEST OF YAP OVER 
THE PHILIPPINE SEA. IN RESPONSE...THE BAND OF CONVERGENT WINDS HAS 
SHIFTED WEST OF YAP BUT OVER KOROR INSTEAD. AS CONVECTION FLARING UP 
IN THE VICINITY OF KOROR TODAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
LIKELY FOR YAP AS WELL. THEN GENTLE SOUTHEAST TRADES FILTERING IN 
FROM THE EAST MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LESS SHOWER COVERAGE 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER 
THE MARIANAS COULD ENHANCE TRADE-WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS BOTH 
LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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