Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2010 02:54:33 -0500

604 
FXPQ60 PGUM 160754
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
554 PM CHST SAT OCT 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IS JUST EAST OF 150E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SMALL CHANGES MADE TO
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOW TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL
MOVE WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR A FEW DAYS. GFS CONTINUES TO PREDICT A TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW SINCE IT LOOKS THE
LESS LIKELY OF SOLUTIONS. EXPECT BASIC EAST TRADE-WINDS THROUGH THE 
WEEK BECOMING A BIT WEAKER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET PREDICTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
EARLIER FORECAST ANTICIPATED A WEST SWELL ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE COMING WEEK...WHICH WAS TO COME FROM TYPHOON MEGI. AT
THE PRESENT TIME THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE TYPHOON THAT
WOULD HAVE GENERATED A SWELL IS NOT THE BEST. WW3 DOES NOT SHOW
ANY WEST SWELL EITHER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A PROOF TO BASE A 
FORECAST ON SINCE THESE MODELS DO NOT ALWAYS RESOLVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WINDS ACCURATELY. AT ANY RATE...NIXED THE WEST SWELL AT
LEAST UNTIL WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE OR IF SURF OBS SHOW
A WEST SWELL DEVELOPING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE EDGE OF A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE LINGERED OVER POHNPEI TODAY...
BUT SHOULD DEPART BY EVENING. THEN DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADES ALREADY
DOMINATING KOSRAE WILL PROMOTE FAIR CONDITIONS OVER POHNPEI BY
MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY UPON MAJURO. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD IMPACT MAJURO OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES SHOULD PROVIDE WEAKER CONVERGENCE OVER THE
MARSHALLS BUT AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY MIGHT INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TRADE SURGE
EAST OF THE DATE LINE IS GOING TO DISPLACE THE SECOND DISTURBANCE
AND CAUSE THE DISTURBANCE TO PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM POHNPEI IS NOW UPON CHUUK WITH 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. BY MONDAY...DRIER WEATHER BEHIND 
THE DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO THE ISLAND. TYPHOON MEGI 
IS MOVING FARTHER NORTHWEST OF YAP. IN RESPONSE...THE AREA OF 
CONVERGENT WINDS SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWWESTWARD AND SLOWLY 
DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY. THEN GENTLE SOUTHEAST TRADES FILTERING 
IN FROM THE EAST MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LESS SHOWER 
COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
MOVING OVER THE MARIANAS COULD ENHANCE TRADE-WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY 
ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDWEEK.  

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/DEVITA

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