From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 16 15:54:57 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9G7su7Y021583 for ; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 15:54:56 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9FHn6YE019088; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 02:54:40 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3912461 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 02:54:40 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9G7se9A015183 for ; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 02:54:40 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9G7sXPX013932 for ; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 02:54:40 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id AF53A40501A6; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 02:54:33 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101016075433.AF53A40501A6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2010 02:54:33 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 604 FXPQ60 PGUM 160754 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 554 PM CHST SAT OCT 16 2010 .SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IS JUST EAST OF 150E. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SMALL CHANGES MADE TO WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOW TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW DAYS. GFS CONTINUES TO PREDICT A TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW SINCE IT LOOKS THE LESS LIKELY OF SOLUTIONS. EXPECT BASIC EAST TRADE-WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING A BIT WEAKER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET PREDICTED THROUGH THE WEEK. EARLIER FORECAST ANTICIPATED A WEST SWELL ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE COMING WEEK...WHICH WAS TO COME FROM TYPHOON MEGI. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE TYPHOON THAT WOULD HAVE GENERATED A SWELL IS NOT THE BEST. WW3 DOES NOT SHOW ANY WEST SWELL EITHER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A PROOF TO BASE A FORECAST ON SINCE THESE MODELS DO NOT ALWAYS RESOLVE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINDS ACCURATELY. AT ANY RATE...NIXED THE WEST SWELL AT LEAST UNTIL WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE OR IF SURF OBS SHOW A WEST SWELL DEVELOPING. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE EDGE OF A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE LINGERED OVER POHNPEI TODAY... BUT SHOULD DEPART BY EVENING. THEN DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADES ALREADY DOMINATING KOSRAE WILL PROMOTE FAIR CONDITIONS OVER POHNPEI BY MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY UPON MAJURO. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD IMPACT MAJURO OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES SHOULD PROVIDE WEAKER CONVERGENCE OVER THE MARSHALLS BUT AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY MIGHT INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR TRADE-WIND SHOWERS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TRADE SURGE EAST OF THE DATE LINE IS GOING TO DISPLACE THE SECOND DISTURBANCE AND CAUSE THE DISTURBANCE TO PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM POHNPEI IS NOW UPON CHUUK WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. BY MONDAY...DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO THE ISLAND. TYPHOON MEGI IS MOVING FARTHER NORTHWEST OF YAP. IN RESPONSE...THE AREA OF CONVERGENT WINDS SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWWESTWARD AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY. THEN GENTLE SOUTHEAST TRADES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LESS SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MARIANAS COULD ENHANCE TRADE-WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDWEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.