Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 014

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2010 03:55:13 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 131.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 131.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 18.8N 129.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.8N 126.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.5N 124.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 18.1N 122.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 17.6N 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 17.5N 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 17.9N 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 130.9E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING OUTLINING AN EMBEDDED CENTER. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW (T5.5) AND A 160350Z ITOP VORTEX MESSAGE SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
RESTRICTED ON THE WEST SIDE BY AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL LOCATED NEAR 17N 153E. THE
FORECAST PHILOSPOHY RAMAINS UNCHANGED. CURRENTLY TY 15W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS THAT IS ANCHORED TO AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 30N 160E.
ANALYSIS OF 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ASIA
INDICATE THAT RIDGING HAS BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE 16/00Z NOGAPS AND WBAR
RUNS HAVE WALKED SOUTH NEARER TO THE REST OF THE MODEL PACKING,
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A STRENGTHENING STEERING RIDGE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HINGED ON THE TROUGH TO THE WEST FILLING AND
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE
NORTH. REINTENSIFICATION IS STILL ANTICIPATED IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//

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