Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 016

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2010 15:35:07 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 128.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 128.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.9N 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.6N 124.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 18.0N 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 17.7N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 17.5N 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 18.0N 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 19.1N 113.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 128.2E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161525Z TRMM 85H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED 13 NM EYE WITH
TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TY MEGI HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE FILLING OF AN INDUCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TY MEGI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON AND INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD IN HIGHLY FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BY
18/06Z AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AND RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD SOUTHERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT (TO INCLUDE GFDN AND NOGAPS). WBAR REMAINS AN OUTLIER,
TRACKING THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN, BUT HAS BEEN TRENDING
SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PAST FIVE MODEL RUNS. THIS FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR
WBAR, BUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//

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