From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 17 04:35:32 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9GKZVUJ014389 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 04:35:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9FHn6gR019088; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 15:35:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3917100 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 15:35:14 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9GKZEAn011949 for ; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 15:35:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9GKZ7mj029521 for ; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 15:35:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 77AF0108B0002; Sat, 16 Oct 2010 15:35:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101016203507.77AF0108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2010 15:35:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 016 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 128.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 128.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.9N 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.6N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.0N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 17.7N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.5N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.0N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 19.1N 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 128.2E. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161525Z TRMM 85H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED 13 NM EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TY MEGI HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE FILLING OF AN INDUCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TY MEGI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD IN HIGHLY FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BY 18/06Z AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AND RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT (TO INCLUDE GFDN AND NOGAPS). WBAR REMAINS AN OUTLIER, TRACKING THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN, BUT HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PAST FIVE MODEL RUNS. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR WBAR, BUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.