From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 17 15:31:20 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9H7VJMA022111 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 15:31:20 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9G400fm028194; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 02:31:03 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3920669 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 02:31:03 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9H7V3gX015327 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 02:31:03 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9H7Uuav004271 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 02:31:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 81323108B0002; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 02:30:56 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101017073056.81323108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2010 02:30:56 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 585 FXPQ60 PGUM 170730 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 530 PM CHST SUN OCT 17 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 17N148E...OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN. THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE MOVING WEST. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER AREA WILL KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE REDUCED ANY RAINFALL MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS SO KEPT SHOWERS ISOLATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH AND CIRCULATION EAST OF 155E THIS AFTERNOON. GFS HINTS AT IT MOVING WEST OF 150E BY WEDNESDAY BUT BRINGS LITTLE RAIN WITH IT. WITH OTHER MODELS EITHER DISCOUNTING THE TROUGH OR RAINFALL FIGURE ON LEAVING OUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE DEFINITE. && .MARINE... EAST SWELL OF ONLY FOUR FEET IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE IPAN BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON VERIFIED THIS WITH A SWELL OF JUST LESS THAN FOUR FEET. THIS WILL KEEP SURF IN THE LOW RIP CURRENT RISK ZONE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DESPITE SUPER TYPHOON MEGI SPINNING TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BELIEVE THAT THE WIND FIELD AND MOTION OF THE TYPHOON WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR SWELL PUSHING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG A PRONOUNCED TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE AND A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION OVER THE MARSHALLS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MAJURO. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE LOW AND MOVE THIS FEATURE NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARSHALLS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH PROPAGATES WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND BEGINS TO AFFECT KOSRAE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN APPARENT QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS WEST OF CHUUK AND SOUTHEAST OF YAP. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN FUTURE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM BUT FORECASTED MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ONLY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT PROGGED TOWARD YAP. STRONG SHEAR SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PHILIPPINE SEA SHOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CIRCULATION...MIDWEEK FORECAST FOR YAP COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. FOR KOROR...CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.