Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 018

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2010 03:56:06 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 126.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 126.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.1N 123.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 17.7N 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 17.2N 119.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 17.1N 117.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 17.3N 115.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 18.0N 114.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 19.0N 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 125.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MEGI RETAINS ITS SUPER TYPHOON
CLASSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE
SEA TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH A 17/0120Z ITOP
VORTEX MESSAGE, WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 143 KNOTS.
MORE RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD ALSO SUPPORT
AT LEAST 140 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE BOASTS AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND A CIRCULAR 20 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH A CLOSED EYEWALL.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO VENT TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE EAST. MAGI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON IN
LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE RUGGED
INTERIOR OF LUZON. THE CYCLONE WILL THEN EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND REINTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKENESS IN THE DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES BEYOND 36 HOURS. NONETHELESS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//

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