From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 18 04:45:27 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9HKjQ8u001337 for ; Mon, 18 Oct 2010 04:45:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9FHn61U019088; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 15:45:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3924922 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 15:45:13 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9HKjDQn006309 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 15:45:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9HKj6X9018876 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 15:45:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 900EA40501A6; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 15:45:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101017204506.900EA40501A6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2010 15:45:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 020 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 124.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 124.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.2N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.8N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.7N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.9N 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 17.4N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.2N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.8N 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 123.7E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED 25 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH A CONCENTRIC EYE WALL AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON COINCIDENT EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AT 17/18Z. STY MEGI APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 160 TO 165 KNOTS BETWEEN 17/12Z AND 17/18Z, BASED ON 171115Z AND 171206Z AIRCRAFT VORTEX MESSAGES INDICATING 163 KNOT MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 893 MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 155 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO INITIAL INTERACTION OF THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAVE SUSTAINED AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, RESPECTIVELY. STY MEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAGAYAN AND ISABELA PROVINCES IN NORTHERN LUZON AND WEAKEN TO TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE CORDILLERA MOUNTAIN RANGE. STY 15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 24 AND RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 36, THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS BASED ON THE TIMING IN WHICH THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36, BUT IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN THE LATER TAUS, FAVORING THE MORE CONSISTENT UKMO, ECMWF, AND JGSM MODEL TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.