From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 18 05:54:40 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9HLsdXD013449 for ; Mon, 18 Oct 2010 05:54:39 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9G400wG028194; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 16:54:27 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3925350 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 16:54:27 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9HLsQDY010510 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 16:54:26 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9HLsK0u015374 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 16:54:26 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 525DF40501A6; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 16:54:20 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101017215420.525DF40501A6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2010 16:54:20 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 541 FXPQ60 PGUM 172153 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 753 AM CHST MON OCT 18 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE MARIANAS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL EAST OF THE MARIANAS WHICH MAY AFFECT THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... WESTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWER AREA MENTIONED ABOVE IS LIMITED. THEREFORE DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW FAIRLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY IS THE WORD...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT AREA TO THE EAST. THE GFS40 TRIES TO BRING A CIRCULATION FROM NEAR KWAJALEIN TO NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. THE MODEL PICTURES EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION WHICH IR SATELLITE SHOWS IS SIMPLY NOT THERE. THEREFORE WOULD FAVOR THE ECMWF-HIRES SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS IT AS A TROUGH. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS DRIER...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST THIS RUN THE DIFFERENCE IS LESS. WITH EVEN THE GFS40 TRENDING A BIT DRIER OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THE CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS GRIDS LOOKED JUST FINE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS STEADILY DISSIPATED NEAR KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS STILL REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL MARSHALLS NORTHWARD TO NEAR WAKE ISLAND. WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE MAJURO HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH AGREES WELL WITH LATEST MODELS. DRY SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE WEEK. GFS IS RESOLUTE IN DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. UKMET INITIALLY AGREES BUT THEN BACKS OFF BY TUESDAY NIGHT...JOINING ECMWF IN DEPICTING A WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH JUST NORTH OF 10N...NORTH OF POHNPEI. GFS ALSO SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THE CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT...INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ITS IMPACT ON EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL BE MINIMAL. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN JUST WEST OF KOROR...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS AND MODEL DATA SHOWING THE BULK OF MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE WEST...DECIDED TO DROP BACK TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK. MUCH THE SAME GOES FOR YAP. A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF YAP THAT IS POORLY DEFINED BY MODELS...EXCEPT FOR UKMET...WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS FOR YAP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARD...A DRY SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND PATTERN SPREADING WESTWARD FROM POHNPEI AND CHUUK WILL SUPPRESS SHOWERS AT YAP AND KOROR. DECIDED TO REDUCE COMBINED SEAS FOR YAP AND KOROR BASED ON LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWING LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS COMPARED TO DATA OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.