From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 18 09:43:09 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9I1h8aJ024871 for ; Mon, 18 Oct 2010 09:43:08 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9I14awu022864; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 20:42:36 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3927157 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 20:42:36 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9I1gZwU025473 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 20:42:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9I1gHtZ023812 for ; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 20:42:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id BD1B640501A6; Sun, 17 Oct 2010 20:42:17 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101018014217.BD1B640501A6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2010 20:42:17 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 021 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 123.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 123.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.2N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.0N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.0N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.3N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 18.0N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 19.0N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.7N 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 122.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.