Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 022

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2010 03:14:07 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 121.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 121.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 17.0N 119.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.9N 118.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 17.0N 116.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 17.3N 115.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 18.1N 114.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 19.5N 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 21.4N 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 121.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MEGI HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAIN RANGE (AVERAGE ELEVATION 5,900 FEET) OF ISABELLA PROVINCE,
LUZON. THE SYSTEM CAME ASHORE AROUND 0330Z NEAR DIVILACAN BAY AND
HAS TRACKED SOUTH OF WEST WHILE WEAKENING. THE EYE HAS FILLED, BUT
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHEDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ARE
LIKELY UNREPRESENATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL ENTER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A VERY STRONG SYSTEM AND WILL STEADILY RE-
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AROUND DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST
THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND PROMOTE A MORE NORTH OF WEST
TRACK. AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST LIES ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH TO DATE HAS PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. GFS AND WBAR REMAIN NORTHERN OUTLIERS, RESOLVING
UNREALISTIC TRACKS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND
190900Z.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.