From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 19 04:56:37 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9IKuaMJ006207 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 04:56:37 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9IGFWjl022864; Mon, 18 Oct 2010 15:56:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3941256 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 18 Oct 2010 15:54:51 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9IKsVjU019488 for ; Mon, 18 Oct 2010 15:54:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9IKsPAR000522 for ; Mon, 18 Oct 2010 15:54:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 194FE108B0002; Mon, 18 Oct 2010 15:54:25 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101018205425.194FE108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2010 15:54:25 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 024 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 119.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 119.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.7N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.0N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.8N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.7N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.2N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.6N 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.9N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 118.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 15W HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WATER AND HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY- CURVED BANDING (TCB). A 181509Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT OVER ALL QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CHINA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND TCB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 115 KNOTS PLUS THE STRONG MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 24-72 BASED ON OBSERVED WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND EVIDENCE OF A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE DATA) HAS SUBSEQUENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A STAIR- STEP PATTERN. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, JGSM, NOGAPS, GFDN) PLUS WBAR NOW SUPPORT THIS TRACK AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING STR AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR RE-BUILDS NORTH NEAR TAU 72. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION NEAR TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.