From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 19 15:11:20 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9J7BIaU032112 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 15:11:19 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9IMbcLT022864; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 02:11:05 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3948189 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 02:11:04 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9J7B4iT007108 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 02:11:04 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9J7AwRY006479 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 02:11:04 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 07EDD108B0004; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 02:10:57 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101019071058.07EDD108B0004@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2010 02:10:57 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 829 FXPQ60 PGUM 190710 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 510 PM CHST TUE OCT 19 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE MARIANAS ARE SITUATED BETWEEN TWO CIRCULATIONS...ONE EAST OF YAP AT ABOUT 9N141E AND THE OTHER ENE OF THE MARIANAS AT ABOUT 16N151E. THE MARIANAS LIE IN THE NEUTRAL POINT BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE MARIANAS WATERS...AND THE ISLAND SHOWERS OVER GUAM HAVE DISSIPATED. && .DISCUSSION... THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE TWO CIRCULATIONS WITH ANY CONSISTENCY AMONG THEMSELVES AT ALL...AND AS A RESULT THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. GFS TAKES THE NE CIRCULATION WESTWARD NORTH OF SAIPAN...SWINGING OUR WINDS AROUND TO SW FOR A FEW DAYS...AND BRINGING SOME SHOWERS CLOSE TO SAIPAN OVERNIGHT...BUT IT COMPLETELY WASHES OUT THE YAP CIRCULATION. THE UKMET DOES VERY LITTLE WITH THE NE CIRCULATION...AND KEEPS THE YAP CIRCULATION SW OF GUAM. THE NOGAPS TAKES THE NE CIRC NW WELL NORTH OF THE MARIANAS...BUT IT TAKES THE YAP CIRC AND MOVES IT NE OVER GUAM THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY! IN LIGHT OF THE DISPARATE MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THU NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD DELIVER ISLAND SHOWERS TO GUAM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE NE CIRCULATION MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR BOTH OF THE CIRCULATIONS MAY AFFECT THE ISLANDS MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BOTH WEATHERWISE AND MODEL-WISE. && .MARINE... EAST SWELL HAS COME UP A BIT TO 5 FEET AT TIMES...AND THIS WILL KEEP SURF AT 5-7 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS...AND 3-5 FEET ON NORTH FACING...RESULTING IN A MODERATE RIP RISK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... PREVIOUS FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH MODEL ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS. VARIABLE WINDS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR POHNPEI BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING KWAJALEIN...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF A TROUGH THAT SITS BETWEEN KWAJALEIN AND WAKE ISLAND. MODELS PUSH THIS TROUGH NORTHWESTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO PASS BY MAJURO LATE THURSDAY...PASSING NORTH OF KOSRAE AND ACROSS POHNPEI THIS WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CHUUK FORECAST HOLDS STEADY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND VARIABLE WINDS ADDED FOR TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH YAP AND KOROR AS BOTH SIT JUST WEST OF INVEST AREA 97W. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CIRCULATION GROWING IN SIZE...CENTERED NEAR 9N140E. MODELS EXHIBIT A POOR GRASP OF THIS SYSTEM...INITIALIZING ITS LOCATION POORLY AND WASHING OUT WHAT CIRCULATION THERE IS TO THE WEST OR ABSORBING IT INTO ANOTHER CIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF GUAM AS IT MOVES WEST. DEEP CONVECTION BLEW UP TODAY JUST EAST OF YAP AND IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATIFICATION...AS OUTFLOW SHOWERS ARE NOW SEEN MOVING WEST TOWARDS YAP. EASTWARD MOVING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PASSING OVER KOROR TODAY WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GFS SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF ANY MAJOR RAINS THIS WEEK FOR ANY OF THE LOCATIONS AS HEAVY RAINS ARE TO REMAIN EAST OF YAP AND KOROR. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.