From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 19 16:17:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9J8HRU3006279 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 16:17:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9IMbcMK022864; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 03:17:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3948652 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 03:17:11 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9J8HBwA011970 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 03:17:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9J8H4K9016328 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 03:17:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id AA897108B0004; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 03:17:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101019081704.AA897108B0004@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2010 03:17:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 026 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 118.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 118.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.1N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.8N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.5N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.3N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.9N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.7N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.9N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 118.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ENLARGED. THE SAME ANIMATION DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 15W IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH A MESOCALE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)TO THE NORTHEAST. TYPHOON MEGI HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT MORE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL CHINA. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 96, THEN DEFLECT WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE NORTH BUILDS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND EGRR FAVORING A DRASTIC POLEWARD TUG TOWARDS TAIWAN AND ECMWF FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS WITH BIAS TOWARDS ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION STAYS WITH CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FAVORING A LESS INTENSE POLEWARD MOTION ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.