Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 026

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2010 03:17:04 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 026
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 118.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 118.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 17.1N 117.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 17.8N 116.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 18.5N 115.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 19.3N 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 20.9N 114.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 22.7N 114.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 23.9N 112.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 118.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED AN EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ENLARGED. THE SAME
ANIMATION DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY
15W IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH A
MESOCALE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. IT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR)TO THE NORTHEAST. TYPHOON MEGI HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT MORE
POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL CHINA. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG
KONG NEAR TAU 96, THEN DEFLECT WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
TO THE NORTH BUILDS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND EGRR FAVORING A DRASTIC POLEWARD TUG TOWARDS
TAIWAN AND ECMWF FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS FORECAST
IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS WITH BIAS TOWARDS ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION
STAYS WITH CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FAVORING A LESS INTENSE
POLEWARD MOTION ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z,
200300Z AND 200900Z.//

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