Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2010 15:29:08 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 192000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/192000Z-200600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 191200Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3N 148.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF THE MARIANAS. A 191050Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH FRESH EASTERLIES ALONG THE
20TH LATITUDE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROTA AND SAIPAN SHOW LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS, AS WELL AS 2.5MB 24 PRESSURE FALLS AT SAIPAN. A
191614Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ORGANIZING
AROUND THE LLCC. THE 191200Z 200MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS LLCC
IS CURRENTLY UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LLCC WILL BRING
THE SYSTEM UNDER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TUTT CELL
CENTERED NEAR 18N 140E WHICH IS INDUCING SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//

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