From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 20 04:29:29 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9JKTSIP027510 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 04:29:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9JJ8Y7L022864; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 15:29:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3956037 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 15:29:15 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9JKTFMN016737 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 15:29:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9JKT8sc001055 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 15:29:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id CBC7E108B0002; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 15:29:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101019202908.CBC7E108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2010 15:29:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 192000 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/192000Z-200600ZOCT2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZOCT2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 191200Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3N 148.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INRARED IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF THE MARIANAS. A 191050Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH FRESH EASTERLIES ALONG THE 20TH LATITUDE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROTA AND SAIPAN SHOW LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS, AS WELL AS 2.5MB 24 PRESSURE FALLS AT SAIPAN. A 191614Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE LLCC. THE 191200Z 200MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS LLCC IS CURRENTLY UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LLCC WILL BRING THE SYSTEM UNDER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TUTT CELL CENTERED NEAR 18N 140E WHICH IS INDUCING SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.