Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2010 22:09:09 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 191800Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
117.6E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 192100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N
148.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.3N 148.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 147.8E. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALSO, A 192055Z
37GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN, ROTA, AND GUAM SHOW 24 HR
PRESSURE FALLS OF 4MB, 3MB, 2MB RESPECTIVELY. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER THE MARIANAS ISLANDS
HAS WEAKENED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RETREATING TUTT CELL, ALLOWING
IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA 1.B(1) UPGRADED FROM
POOR TO FAIR.//

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