From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 20 11:09:27 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9K39Q3J016068 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 11:09:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9JJ8YWS022864; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 22:09:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3960147 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 22:09:16 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9K39GaQ017410 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 22:09:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9K3991O023696 for ; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 22:09:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7F2D24050201; Tue, 19 Oct 2010 22:09:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101020030909.7F2D24050201@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2010 22:09:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZOCT2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZOCT2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 191800Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.6E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 192100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 148.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 148.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 147.8E. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALSO, A 192055Z 37GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN, ROTA, AND GUAM SHOW 24 HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 4MB, 3MB, 2MB RESPECTIVELY. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER THE MARIANAS ISLANDS HAS WEAKENED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RETREATING TUTT CELL, ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA 1.B(1) UPGRADED FROM POOR TO FAIR.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.