Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 01:29:06 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 200000Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG CHINA, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS SUSTAINED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ALSO, A 200340Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED
BANDING. HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF TWO TUTT
CELLS - ONE ON THE WEST AND ONE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW
OF THE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

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