From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 20 14:29:31 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9K6TTb5031184 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 14:29:30 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9JJ8YhZ022864; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 01:29:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3962817 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 01:29:13 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9K6TDvB003519 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 01:29:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9K6T657024563 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 01:29:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 5FDF24050280; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 01:29:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101020062906.5FDF24050280@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 01:29:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 200600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZOCT2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZOCT2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 200000Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG CHINA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS SUSTAINED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALSO, A 200340Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING. HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF TWO TUTT CELLS - ONE ON THE WEST AND ONE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.