Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 02:24:04 -0500

763 
FXPQ60 PGUM 200723
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
523 PM CHST WED OCT 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W IS CENTERED NE OF SAIPAN NEAR 16N147E AND
SHOULD PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR ANATAHAN TONIGHT. THE CENTER SEEMS
TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS
MAINLY CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION WITH 95W PASSING NORTH OF SAIPAN
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND UKMET BOTH BRING RAIN ACROSS THE MARIANAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. BEYOND THAT...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. GFS AND UKMET BOTH
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRI AND SAT...BUT
THAT IS LIKELY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY IF 95W DEVELOPS AND
CONSOLIDATES...WHICH SEEMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT.
SHOULD 95W CONSOLIDATE...THE PERIPHERAL SHOWER BANDS IN THE MODELS
WOULD LIKELY DISAPPEAR AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS IN
AROUND THE OUTER PERIMETER OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SO HAVE GONE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
UNTIL 95W DECLARES ITS INTENTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH WSW TO SW WINDS WILL PUSH SURF UP A BIT ON SOUTH
AND WEST FACING REEFS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
MODERATE RIP RISK ON ALL EXPOSURES...AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD SWING AROUND TO SOUTH FRIDAY...ALLOWING
SURF TO FALL ON WEST FACING REEFS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FORECAST HOLDS STEADY FOR THE REGION WITH EXCEPTION OF MAJURO FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A TRADE-WIND
SURGE BEARING DOWN ON MAJURO...ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. IT IS HARD
TO ARGUE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A BETTER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TOMORROW AND THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. GFS HOLDS MAJURO ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SHOWERS
WHILE ECMWF BRINGS THE SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH. THE ONGOING TREND
OF SHOWERS PASSING NORTH OF KOSRAE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT IF THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES NEAR
MAJURO...THEN KOSRAE COULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT POHNPEI WILL
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TILL FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS WEST MICRONESIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CIRCULATION NEAR YAP CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WEAKER PRESENCE AS
IT GRADUALLY BECOMES PART OF THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW AT YAP
AND KOROR WILL SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND. ISLAND
SHOWERS OVER KOROR ARE COMING TO AN END BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL LINGER TONIGHT. THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS
VARIABLY TURN WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHUUK WILL HOLD STEADY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT

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