From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 20 16:07:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9K87RwM031496 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 16:07:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9JJ8Yjv022864; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 03:07:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3963363 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 03:07:15 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9K87Fvl009508 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 03:07:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9K8782d028559 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 03:07:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8000940502BC; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 03:07:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101020080708.8000940502BC@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 03:07:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 030 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 117.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 117.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.6N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.6N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.0N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.2N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 23.7N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 24.7N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 117.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE AND OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD CHANNEL, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 15W IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVING POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING POLEWARD UP TO TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, A BRANCH OF THE STR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CHINA WILL REBUILD AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 96 NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH GFS ON THE EXTREME RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT. THIS FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE AND JUST TO THE LEFT OF JTWC CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS'S UNLIKELY EASTWARD DEFLECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.