From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 20 17:29:33 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9K9TW1d005804 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 17:29:32 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9JJ8Yl1022864; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 04:29:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3963740 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 04:29:13 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9K9TC97014951 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 04:29:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9K9T67f013287 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 04:29:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 37D7F108B0002; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 04:29:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101020092906.37D7F108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 04:29:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 200930 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 148.1E TO 16.7N 140.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 200900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS SUSTAINED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN INDICATE A 4 MB DROP IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALSO, A 200346Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT IS PROVIDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH IS SUPPRESSING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES WITH THE SYSTEM'S REORIENTATION TO THE TUTT CELLS IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY 210930Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.