From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 20 19:14:20 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9KBEJow013966 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 19:14:19 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9JJ8Ymj022864; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 06:14:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3964298 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 06:14:02 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KBE1rF023526 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 06:14:01 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KBDtcd002538 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 06:14:01 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 1DAD640502D9; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 06:13:54 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101020111355.1DAD640502D9@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 06:13:54 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 776 FXPQ60 PGUM 201113 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 913 PM CHST WED OCT 20 2010 .UPDATE...SPLIT THE ZONES AND UPDATED SAIPAN AND TINIAN. HEAVY CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS SAIPAN DURING THE EVENING WHILE TCFA 95W CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS ANATAHAN. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT LAST ALL NIGHT BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF A CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING TOWARD THE SE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A FEW HOURS ANYWAY. MORE SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING TOWARD ROTA AND GUAM WHERE SCATTERED IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. WE EARLIER ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR 95W. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CHST WED OCT 20 2010/ SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W IS CENTERED NE OF SAIPAN NEAR 16N147E AND SHOULD PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR ANATAHAN TONIGHT. THE CENTER SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS. DISCUSSION... A DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION WITH 95W PASSING NORTH OF SAIPAN OVERNIGHT. GFS AND UKMET BOTH BRING RAIN ACROSS THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE ISLANDS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. BEYOND THAT...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. GFS AND UKMET BOTH KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRI AND SAT...BUT THAT IS LIKELY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY IF 95W DEVELOPS AND CONSOLIDATES...WHICH SEEMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT. SHOULD 95W CONSOLIDATE...THE PERIPHERAL SHOWER BANDS IN THE MODELS WOULD LIKELY DISAPPEAR AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS IN AROUND THE OUTER PERIMETER OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SO HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL 95W DECLARES ITS INTENTIONS. MARINE... MODERATE TO FRESH WSW TO SW WINDS WILL PUSH SURF UP A BIT ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A MODERATE RIP RISK ON ALL EXPOSURES...AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD SWING AROUND TO SOUTH FRIDAY...ALLOWING SURF TO FALL ON WEST FACING REEFS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. EASTERN MICRONESIA... FORECAST HOLDS STEADY FOR THE REGION WITH EXCEPTION OF MAJURO FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A TRADE-WIND SURGE BEARING DOWN ON MAJURO...ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO ARGUE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. A BETTER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW AND THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. GFS HOLDS MAJURO ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SHOWERS WHILE ECMWF BRINGS THE SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH. THE ONGOING TREND OF SHOWERS PASSING NORTH OF KOSRAE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES NEAR MAJURO...THEN KOSRAE COULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHOWERS. ISOLATED CONVECTION PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT POHNPEI WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TILL FRIDAY. WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS WEST MICRONESIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIRCULATION NEAR YAP CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WEAKER PRESENCE AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES PART OF THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW AT YAP AND KOROR WILL SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND. ISLAND SHOWERS OVER KOROR ARE COMING TO AN END BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER TONIGHT. THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS VARIABLY TURN WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHUUK WILL HOLD STEADY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ SIMPSON/M. 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