Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 13:58:04 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 201930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201930Z-210600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZOCT2010//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/2000921ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING, REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 201200Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 201500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N
146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, IS NOW THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 200930)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 162.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 201444Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD
TUTT CELL AND DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING DUE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2).//

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