From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 02:58:46 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9KIwjsB004113 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 02:58:45 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KBrl90001367; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 13:58:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3970814 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 13:58:11 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KIwACm018360 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 13:58:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KIw4c1025865 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 13:58:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 451D840503A8; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 13:58:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101020185804.451D840503A8@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 13:58:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 201930 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201930Z-210600ZOCT2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZOCT2010// REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/2000921ZOCT2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING, REF B IS A /TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 201200Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 201500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 200930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201444Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD TUTT CELL AND DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING DUE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2).// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.