From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 04:48:49 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9KKmmo8010523 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 04:48:49 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KBitt8000580; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 15:48:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3972498 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 15:48:14 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KKmDdg029829 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 15:48:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KKm7IX013680 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 15:48:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 310AE108B0002; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 15:48:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101020204807.310AE108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 15:48:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 032 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 202100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 117.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 117.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.9N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.8N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.1N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 23.2N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 24.4N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.0N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 117.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 15W HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. HOWEVER, IR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A BANDING EYE AND A 201737Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE 20/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHARP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CHINA AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE STABLE AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, SUPPORTING THE POLEWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DE-COUPLE. SUBSEQUENTLY, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A NORTHWESTWARD TURN INTO CHINA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW- LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KOREA/JAPAN. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.