From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 06:05:27 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9KM5QwP013447 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 06:05:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KBit0q000580; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 17:05:08 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3973368 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 17:05:07 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KM57Ii023018 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 17:05:07 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KM5197004852 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 17:05:07 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 302374050417; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 17:05:01 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101020220501.302374050417@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 17:05:01 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 194 FXPQ60 PGUM 202204 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 804 AM CHST THU OCT 21 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF ANATAHAN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COVERED A GOODLY PORTION OF THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... THE MAJOR CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE REGION. HARD TO FIND CENTER AT THIS TIME BUT RELIED ON JTWC AND JAPANS BEST ESTIMATE AS WELL AS LOOKING AT RADAR IMAGERY. IT SEEMS THE CENTER IS SOMEWHERE WEST OF ANATAHAN...ALTHOUGH RADAR DOES SEEM TO SHOW A FEW MID-LEVEL CENTERS ALSO. CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST WITH TIME AND SO KEPT THE KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND-FLOW CONVERGENCE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE IS THE REASON FOR THE LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE AT A LOW POINT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT NOT LOOKING ALL THAT ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING IT A CIRCULATION THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING IT SLOWLY WEST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. JAPAN HAS ALREADY CLASSIFIED IT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND IT PROBABLY WILL GAIN BETTER ORGANIZATION AT SOME TIME. IF AND WHEN IT DOES IT SHOULD BE WEST OF THE MARIANAS. && .MARINE... EAST SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK AT MODERATE ON EAS FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ASSOCIATION WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL AFFECT MAJURO FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONVECTION APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE ONLY ISSUE. THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF 98W NEAR 16N160E IS CAUSING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 95W IS ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR KOROR BUT THE BULK OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR TODAY. AS 95W PROGRESSES WESTWARD...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE KOROR AND YAP AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK FROM NNW TO SW AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CHUUK TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR CHUUK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.