Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 17:05:01 -0500

194 
FXPQ60 PGUM 202204
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
804 AM CHST THU OCT 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF ANATAHAN
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COVERED A GOODLY PORTION OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN
THE REGION. HARD TO FIND CENTER AT THIS TIME BUT RELIED ON JTWC
AND JAPANS BEST ESTIMATE AS WELL AS LOOKING AT RADAR IMAGERY. IT
SEEMS THE CENTER IS SOMEWHERE WEST OF ANATAHAN...ALTHOUGH RADAR
DOES SEEM TO SHOW A FEW MID-LEVEL CENTERS ALSO. CENTER EXPECTED TO 
MOVE WEST WITH TIME AND SO KEPT THE KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND-FLOW
CONVERGENCE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE IS THE REASON
FOR THE LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE AT A LOW POINT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT NOT
LOOKING ALL THAT ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING
IT A CIRCULATION THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING IT SLOWLY WEST AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA. JAPAN HAS ALREADY CLASSIFIED IT AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND IT PROBABLY WILL GAIN BETTER ORGANIZATION AT SOME TIME.
IF AND WHEN IT DOES IT SHOULD BE WEST OF THE MARIANAS. 

&&

.MARINE...
EAST SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK AT MODERATE ON EAS FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATION WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL AFFECT 
MAJURO FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE 
WEEKEND APPROACHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONVECTION APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS MAY PASS 
JUST TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE 
THE ONLY ISSUE. THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF 98W NEAR 16N160E 
IS CAUSING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
POHNPEI BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. OTHERWISE...ONLY 
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 95W IS ALLOWING FOR SOME 
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR KOROR BUT THE BULK OF ACTIVITY IS 
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR TODAY. AS 95W 
PROGRESSES WESTWARD...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE KOROR AND YAP 
AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK FROM NNW TO SW AND DRIER 
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CHUUK TODAY 
AND TONIGHT BUT OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH 
OF THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH APPROACHING 
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE IN 
THE FORECAST FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS

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