Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:09:07 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 202330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202330Z-210600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZOCT2010//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/2000921ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING, REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 201800Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N
117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N
146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, IS NOW THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 200930)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
162.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 160.6E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A
SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 202022Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A
COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING
UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2) TO
FAIR.//

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