From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 07:09:36 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9KN9ZxB016589 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 07:09:36 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KBrlDx001367; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:09:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3973883 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:09:18 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KN9IoK027716 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:09:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KN99H4003157 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:09:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A63BE108B0003; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:09:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101020230909.A63BE108B0003@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:09:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 202330 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202330Z-210600ZOCT2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZOCT2010// REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/2000921ZOCT2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING, REF B IS A /TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 201800Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 200930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 162.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 160.6E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202022Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2) TO FAIR.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.