Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:31:06 -0500

WTPN22 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 160.4E TO 24.3N 153.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 210230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 159.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
160.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A
SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 202258Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A
COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING
UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E.//

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