From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 10:31:24 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9L2VNRi029173 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 10:31:23 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L09QD1000580; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:31:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3975510 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:31:13 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L2VDDa011518 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:31:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L2V7DU023998 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:31:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id E2D66108B0002; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:31:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021023106.E2D66108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:31:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN22 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 160.4E TO 24.3N 153.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 210230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 160.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202258Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 220300Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.