From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 10:33:37 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9L2XaTJ029259 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 10:33:37 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L09QDD000580; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:33:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3975546 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:33:24 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L2XO67011723 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:33:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L2XHwI003540 for ; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:33:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id C979D108B0002; Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:33:17 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021023317.C979D108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:33:17 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN22 PGTW 210300 REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200921Z OCT 10// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 200930)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 160.4E TO 24.3N 153.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 210230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 160.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202258Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 220300Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E.// 9810101918 153N1645E 15 9810102000 158N1635E 15 9810102006 164N1626E 15 9810102012 171N1619E 15 9810102018 182N1609E 15 9810102100 192N1599E 20 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.