From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 13:56:47 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9L5ukqh010446 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 13:56:47 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KBrlqh001368; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 00:56:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3977981 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 00:56:14 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L5uEjH000762 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 00:56:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L5u7gd010314 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 00:56:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7853A108B0003; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 00:56:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021055607.7853A108B0003@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 00:56:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 210600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZOCT2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZOCT2010// REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210251ZOCT2010// REF/C/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HABROR HI/200921ZOCT2010// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REFS B AND C ARE /TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 210000Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 160.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202258Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS SUSTAINEDCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN INDICATE A 4 MB DROP IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALSO, A 200346Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT IS PROVIDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH IS SUPPRESSING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES WITH THE SYSTEM'S REORIENTATION TO THE TUTT CELLS IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 200930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.