Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 02:51:05 -0500

036 
FXPQ60 PGUM 210750
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 PM CHST THU OCT 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF
THE MARIANAS WHICH IS MOVING AWAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT...BUT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND SHOULD
ALSO STAY WELL NORTH OF MICRONESIA. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W IS
ALSO THE SUBJECT OF A SEPARATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT...
BUT IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND SHOULD PASS NORTH OF EVEN THE
MARIANAS. THE MARIANAS MAY GET INVOLVED IN A BAND OF WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ BUT
FOR NOW CRUSHING SUBSIDENCE IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PICTURE...
SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE GRIDS WERE ALL IN FINE SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL AFFECT MAJURO FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW
FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE ONLY ISSUE. THE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF 98W...LOCATED NEAR 16N160E...IS CAUSING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI...BUT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PRIOR FORECASTS FOR WESTERN 
MICRONESIA. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 95W...LOCATED AT 
17N142E...IS ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR KOROR BUT 
THE BULK OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND 
EAST FOR TONIGHT. AS 95W PROGRESSES WESTWARD...RIDGING WILL BUILD 
BACK OVER THE KOROR AND YAP AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK 
FROM WEST TO SOUTH AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW 
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CHUUK TONIGHT BUT OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN EMBEDDED 
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WEAK SYSTEM 
SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/DEVITA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.