From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 15:51:29 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9L7pSKO022172 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 15:51:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L3D4DU014749; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 02:51:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3978539 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 02:51:13 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L7pCbA008019 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 02:51:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L7p69D017654 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 02:51:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 080C4108B0002; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 02:51:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021075106.080C4108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 02:51:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 036 FXPQ60 PGUM 210750 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 550 PM CHST THU OCT 21 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE MARIANAS WHICH IS MOVING AWAY. && .DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT...BUT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND SHOULD ALSO STAY WELL NORTH OF MICRONESIA. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W IS ALSO THE SUBJECT OF A SEPARATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT... BUT IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND SHOULD PASS NORTH OF EVEN THE MARIANAS. THE MARIANAS MAY GET INVOLVED IN A BAND OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ BUT FOR NOW CRUSHING SUBSIDENCE IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PICTURE... SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE GRIDS WERE ALL IN FINE SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL AFFECT MAJURO FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONVECTION APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE ONLY ISSUE. THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF 98W...LOCATED NEAR 16N160E...IS CAUSING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT POHNPEI. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PRIOR FORECASTS FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 95W...LOCATED AT 17N142E...IS ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR KOROR BUT THE BULK OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR TONIGHT. AS 95W PROGRESSES WESTWARD...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE KOROR AND YAP AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK FROM WEST TO SOUTH AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CHUUK TONIGHT BUT OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR CHUUK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.