From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 16:31:27 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9L8VQLj026770 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:31:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L3D4E4014749; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 03:31:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3978739 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 03:31:15 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L8VF4a010829 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 03:31:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L8V8xU023626 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 03:31:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8E4EB108B0002; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 03:31:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021083108.8E4EB108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 03:31:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 034 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 210900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 117.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 117.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.9N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.0N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 23.2N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 24.3N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 25.5N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 117.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MEGI CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 40 NM ROUND EYE. PULSING CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WIDE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AMONG PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. IN LIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THIS FORECAST BIASES ITS INITIAL INTENSITY TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA. HOWEVER, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL MODERATE THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH TILL LANDFALL. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DETACH FROM ITS (NORTHEASTWARD) SHEARED CONVECTION AND TRACK OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A POLEWARD TRACK WITH EGRR AND GFS BEING EASTERN OUTLIERS. THIS FORECAST DEVIATES LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.