From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 17:52:53 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9L9qqur032713 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 17:52:52 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L3D4Fe014749; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 04:52:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3979123 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 04:52:21 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L9qLwW016325 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 04:52:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L9qEjX024587 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 04:52:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9B938108B0002; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 04:52:13 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021095214.9B938108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 04:52:13 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Ref/b/msg/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor Hi/210252zoct2010// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 210930 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200921ZOCT2010// REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210252ZOCT2010// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9N 142.1E TO 17.0N 137.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 210600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 141.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 16.3N 146.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. A 210042Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WINDS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NORTHEASTERN, GRADIENT SIDE OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, RETURN FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION IS MUCH WEAKER. A 210733Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC TO A FAIR DEGREE OF CERTAINTY WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND FLANKING THE EASTERN SIDE. MORE RECENTLY CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SHALLOW AND FRAGMENT AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SUPPRESSES UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALSO ELEVATED DUE TO AN ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TUTT CELL AND AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RUNNING ALONG 140E TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THIS SHEAR HAS PERIODICALLY LEFT THE LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD DUE TO AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FIELD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 220930Z. 4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.