From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 21 23:20:08 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9LFK7AJ022452 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 23:20:08 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9L3D4a0014749; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 10:19:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3982677 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 10:19:12 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LFJCSu017052 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 10:19:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LFJ5Xc021654 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 10:19:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A3625405042A; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 10:19:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021151905.A3625405042A@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 10:19:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Ampn/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210930Z OCT 10// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 141.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 141.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.3N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.3N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 17.0N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.9N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 17.2N 132.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 18.6N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 20.3N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 140.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 210930Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.