From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 22 04:46:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9LKkS26007460 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 04:46:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LJQB8w014749; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 15:46:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3987371 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 15:46:14 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LKkEDG020061 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 15:46:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LKk8ix024520 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 15:46:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id EE59E405042C; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 15:46:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021204607.EE59E405042C@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 15:46:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 036 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 036 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 117.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 117.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.1N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.3N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 23.6N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 24.8N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 26.4N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211756Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 40NM RAGGED EYE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON THIS WEAKENING AS WELL AS ON THE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS (RJTD IS CURRENTLY AT 115 KNOTS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST. THE 21/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS (E.G., FROM ISHIGAKI-JIMA) INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA AND SUPPORT A STRONG STEERING STR. THE TROUGH IS PROPAGATING NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.