From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 22 05:16:25 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9LLGN0q009896 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 05:16:24 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LJQBC6014749; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:16:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3987809 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:16:14 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LLGExJ022955 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:16:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LLG7VQ016204 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:16:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9DBF2405042C; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:16:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021211607.9DBF2405042C@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:16:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 17w (seventeen) Warning Nr 001 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 156.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 156.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.6N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.5N 153.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 23.3N 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.9N 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 155.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM NORTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 211503Z AMSR-E PASS, AND A 212430Z KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS INDICATE THAT TD 17W HAS FORMED JUST POLEWARD OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT) CELL. TD 17W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCE A POLEWARD TURN INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A WEAK STEERING SETUP. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, INCLUDING PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE CENTER OF TD 17W FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHOULD PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DISSIPATION BELOW THE 25 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY AROUND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 210251Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 210300). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.