Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:18:04 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 139.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 139.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 17.3N 138.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 17.2N 136.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 17.0N 134.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 17.0N 133.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.5N 131.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.3N 129.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 19.2N 127.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 139.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211642Z AMSR-E
IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND IS SITUATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMSR-E IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TD 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS.
TD 16W IS UNLIKELY TO RE-CURVE DUE TO A STRONG COLD SURGE AND
LOW-LEVEL HIGH EXPECTED BY ALL MODELS TO BUILD INTO THE EAST
CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 120. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS WEAK, IT WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. IF IT STRENGTHEN TO 55-65 KNOTS, THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DE-COUPLES (THEN TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE). MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS
WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72; THIS SOLUTION
DOES NOT MAKE SENSE DUE TO COLD SURGE AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE JGSM, ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION
TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z
AND 222100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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