From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 22 05:18:40 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9LLIdT7010065 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 05:18:40 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KBrl9N001368; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:18:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3987836 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:18:11 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LLIAq9023158 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:18:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LLI4KC017834 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:18:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3D082405042B; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:18:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021211804.3D082405042B@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 16:18:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 002 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 139.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 139.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.3N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 17.2N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.0N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 17.0N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 17.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.3N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.2N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 139.4E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211642Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND IS SITUATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMSR-E IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TD 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS. TD 16W IS UNLIKELY TO RE-CURVE DUE TO A STRONG COLD SURGE AND LOW-LEVEL HIGH EXPECTED BY ALL MODELS TO BUILD INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 120. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK, IT WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IF IT STRENGTHEN TO 55-65 KNOTS, THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DE-COUPLES (THEN TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72; THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT MAKE SENSE DUE TO COLD SURGE AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE JGSM, ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.