From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 22 06:21:39 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9LMLcCD014649 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 06:21:38 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9KBrlBK001368; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 17:21:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3989098 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 17:21:23 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LMLNKS029674 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 17:21:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LMLGvt015151 for ; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 17:21:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id BC787405042D; Thu, 21 Oct 2010 17:21:16 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101021222116.BC787405042D@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 17:21:16 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 555 FXPQ60 PGUM 212221 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 821 AM CHST FRI OCT 22 2010 .SYNOPSIS... TD 16W FORMED OVERNIGHT ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE MARIANAS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...WHILE TD 17W FORMED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST- NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. CONVERGENT SOUTH WINDS TO THE EAST OF 16W ALLOWED A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO SET UP OVER GUAM AND ROTA. LATEST RADAR SHOWED THE SHOWERS WERE ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE CARRYING SCATTERED POPS FOR GUAM AND ROTA THROUGH MID MORNING ALREADY REFLECTS THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... OTHER THAN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ADJUSTMENT FOR GUAM AND ROTA THIS MORNING...FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. STILL EXPECT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD IN AS TD16W MOVES OFF TO THE WEST...WHILE TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PLAYER. MARINE FORECAST GRIDS MERELY REQUIRED A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES. STILL EXPECT MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVEL SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE MARSHALLS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF MAJURO TODAY...PUSHING EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME FRAME. A WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGH AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT AS RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND ARRIVE OVER POHNPEI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT MODELS SHOW ONLY A LIMITED IMPACT AT POHNPEI. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVERGING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RESPONSE TO NEWLY-FORMED TD 16W WEST OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CAUSE INCREASED CONVECTION OVER YAP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST 16W MOVES WESTWARD. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS BUT KEEP THE BULK OF CONVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF KOROR. AS 16W MOVES WEST...RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK OVER YAP AND PALAU ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHUUK WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY. TRADE-WIND TROUGH OVER THE MARSHALLS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR WEST CHUUK BUT DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE LONG-TERM MAKES FOR HIGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.