From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 22 16:26:40 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9M8Qdag015526 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 16:26:40 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LJQBgg014749; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:26:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3993906 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:26:19 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9M8QJ61009040 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:26:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9M8QCL6014128 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:26:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6E6C5108B0002; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:26:12 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101022082612.6E6C5108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:26:12 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 038 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 038 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 118.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 118.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.8N 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 24.1N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 25.4N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 27.1N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 118.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY MEGI HAS WEAKENED 10 KNOTS SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 95 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO A 5.0/5.5 FROM PGTW. THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE TYPHOON. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NEAR THE TERMINUS OF A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY RUNNING ALONG 23N. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IN VIEW OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL FROM AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, LOCATED LESS THAN 5 DEGREES UPSTREAM, WILL PULL THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF NORTH ONCE IS MAKES LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AT AROUND 70 KNOTS THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS METHOD OF DISSIPATION OVER CHINA. THE FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.