Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 15w (megi) Warning Nr 038

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:26:12 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 038
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 118.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 118.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 22.8N 118.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 24.1N 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 25.4N 118.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 27.1N 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 118.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY
MEGI HAS WEAKENED 10 KNOTS SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 95 KNOTS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO A 5.0/5.5 FROM PGTW. THE EYE HAS
BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE TYPHOON. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NEAR THE TERMINUS OF A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY RUNNING ALONG 23N.
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IN VIEW OF 500
MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL FROM AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
LOCATED LESS THAN 5 DEGREES UPSTREAM, WILL PULL THE SYSTEM JUST EAST
OF NORTH ONCE IS MAKES LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AT AROUND 70 KNOTS THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER CHINA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS METHOD OF
DISSIPATION OVER CHINA. THE FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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