From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 22 16:45:24 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9M8jNB2015949 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 16:45:24 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LJQBhI014749; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:45:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3994058 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:45:12 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9M8jBK6010476 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:45:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9M8j5nZ029479 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:45:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 1D453108B0002; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:45:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101022084505.1D453108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:45:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 004 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 138.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 138.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.9N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.8N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.9N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 17.1N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.1N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.6N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.4N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 137.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HAS DEEPENED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS STALLED ORGRANIZATION WHILE DAMPENING DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LESS OBVIOUS IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SIX HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, A 222151Z SSMIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT A LLCC PERISTS TO THE NORTH OF RAPIDLY DISSOLVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE LLCC MAY BE BROADENING, WHICH WOULD IMPLY SHORT TERM WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE, BUT ONCE THEY DO IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MODESTLY INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, ASSUMING THE LLCC DOES NOT DISSIPATE ALL TOGETHER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED WITH NEARLY ALL THE TRACKERS SUGGESTING RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AROUND TAU 72. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SHARPENED POLEWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.