Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 03:45:05 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 138.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 138.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 16.9N 136.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.8N 135.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 16.9N 134.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 17.1N 133.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 18.1N 131.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.6N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 21.4N 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 137.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM NORTH OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HAS DEEPENED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND HAS STALLED ORGRANIZATION WHILE DAMPENING DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LESS OBVIOUS
IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SIX HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, A
222151Z SSMIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT A LLCC PERISTS TO
THE NORTH OF RAPIDLY DISSOLVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. IT ALSO APPEARS
THAT THE LLCC MAY BE BROADENING, WHICH WOULD IMPLY SHORT TERM
WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE, BUT ONCE
THEY DO IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MODESTLY INTENSIFY
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, ASSUMING THE LLCC DOES NOT DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED WITH NEARLY ALL THE TRACKERS
SUGGESTING RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AROUND TAU 72. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHARPENED POLEWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W
(MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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