Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 17w (seventeen) Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 04:28:07 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 154.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 154.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 22.4N 154.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 23.4N 154.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 24.2N 155.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 154.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650
NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS BEING
HINDERED BY A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM CAUSING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TD 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. IT WILL THEN TURN
POLEWARD NEAR TAU 12 AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS. AFTER TAU 12
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT
TURN EASTWARD AFTER TAU 12; HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.