From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 22 17:28:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9M9SPfW017892 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 17:28:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9LH2fCZ000583; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 04:28:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3994300 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 04:28:14 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9M9SDVf013548 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 04:28:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9M9S7o1013914 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 04:28:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 679AC4050428; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 04:28:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101022092807.679AC4050428@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 04:28:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 17w (seventeen) Warning Nr 003 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 154.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 154.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.4N 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 23.4N 154.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 24.2N 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 154.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS BEING HINDERED BY A DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. IT WILL THEN TURN POLEWARD NEAR TAU 12 AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS. AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT TURN EASTWARD AFTER TAU 12; HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.