From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 23 10:41:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9N2fRni023933 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 10:41:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9MGVYc3001368; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 21:40:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4004268 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 21:40:16 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N2eFRF011786 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 21:40:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N2e9MC014168 for ; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 21:40:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 4C3BD108B0002; Fri, 22 Oct 2010 21:40:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101023024009.4C3BD108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 21:40:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Depression 17w (seventeen) To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN33 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 55 NM TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 17W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED AND REORIENTED THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOWED TD 17W TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING SINCE THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN. B. TD 17W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS HIGH DUE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TD 17W SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ERRATIC TRACKS, INDICATIVE OF A DISSIPATION SCENARIO.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.