Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2010 01:01:00 -0500

808 
FXPQ60 PGUM 230600
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM CHST SAT OCT 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. A
RIDGE BUILDING BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS 16W AND 17W WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PERIPHERAL RIDGE BUILDING BETWEEN 16W AND 17W HAS BROUGHT DRY
SEASON TYPE WEATHER TO THE MARIANAS TODAY. IT SHOULD STAY AROUND
FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. AT THAT POINT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE GFS40 BRINGING UP MOSTURE FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS TEND TO KEEP US DRY. SINCE THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH THE
GFS40 COMING IN AND PERSISTENCE FAVORS THE DRY SOLUTION FOR NOW...
WENT WITH THAT AND THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROUGH NOW SITS BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI. WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE 
SOUTHERLY AT POHNPEI BUT WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER 
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY SUNDAY MORNING AS 
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERTAKES EASTERN MICRONESIA ONCE AGAIN. KOSRAE AND 
MAJURO WILL STAY RATHER DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK. AT THE MOMENT...MODELS 
DISAGREE AS TO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO EXPECT BUT FOR NOW 
ISOLATED SHOULD SUFFICE. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHED CHUUK DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS 
PROMPTING A FORECAST UPDATE AT CHUUK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING 
THICK CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM CHUUK TO POHNPEI SUGGESTS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES BY CHUUK 
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF 
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHARED BY EASTERN MICRONESIA. CONVERGENT 
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO 16W HAVE TRIGGERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TWO LOCATIONS. MODELS SHOW 
CONVECTION SUBSIDING FIRST AT KOROR BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AT YAP 
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS AT YAP FOR 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWING HIGHER 
SEAS FROM INCREASED WINDS FLOWING INTO 16W.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

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