From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 23 14:01:23 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9N61Mrc000950 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 14:01:23 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N5184S021767; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 01:01:08 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4006717 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 01:01:07 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N617mW025927 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 01:01:07 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N610Tg000794 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 01:01:07 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D096C108B0002; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 01:01:00 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101023060100.D096C108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2010 01:01:00 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 808 FXPQ60 PGUM 230600 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 400 PM CHST SAT OCT 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. A RIDGE BUILDING BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS 16W AND 17W WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO. && .DISCUSSION... PERIPHERAL RIDGE BUILDING BETWEEN 16W AND 17W HAS BROUGHT DRY SEASON TYPE WEATHER TO THE MARIANAS TODAY. IT SHOULD STAY AROUND FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. AT THAT POINT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS40 BRINGING UP MOSTURE FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO KEEP US DRY. SINCE THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS40 COMING IN AND PERSISTENCE FAVORS THE DRY SOLUTION FOR NOW... WENT WITH THAT AND THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE NEEDED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TROUGH NOW SITS BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI. WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT POHNPEI BUT WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERTAKES EASTERN MICRONESIA ONCE AGAIN. KOSRAE AND MAJURO WILL STAY RATHER DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK. AT THE MOMENT...MODELS DISAGREE AS TO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO EXPECT BUT FOR NOW ISOLATED SHOULD SUFFICE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHED CHUUK DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS PROMPTING A FORECAST UPDATE AT CHUUK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THICK CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM CHUUK TO POHNPEI SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES BY CHUUK TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHARED BY EASTERN MICRONESIA. CONVERGENT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO 16W HAVE TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TWO LOCATIONS. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION SUBSIDING FIRST AT KOROR BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AT YAP BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS AT YAP FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWING HIGHER SEAS FROM INCREASED WINDS FLOWING INTO 16W. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.